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Cement: Positive Oct19 Volume, MoM Pick-up was Also Stronger than its 5Y Seasonality
Friday, November 08, 2019       23:48 WIB

Indonesia Cement Association (ASI) just published its Oct19 volume which showed an overall improvement. Oct19 domestic sales volume was up 2% yoy (+9% mom) - including export, overall volume up 4% yoy (+10% mom). While one can argue that Oct always been the strongest month during the year, we view the improvement in Oct19 was quite convincing; our reasoning stems from: 1) average MoM pick-up in Oct in the last 5 years was around 7%, 2) YoY growth in Sept19 still at -1% vs. +2% yoy in Oct19 and 3) incumbents volume growth (+2% yoy in Oct19) was not far off new players (+4% yoy in Oct19). Considering the strong 3Q19 results, we think this Oct19 data shall add more confident to the sector. We currently haven't formally initiated the sector.
Few details from the data:

  • National volume up +2% yoy (+9% mom) in Oct19. Cumulative 9M19 at -1% yoy.

  • volume up +1% yoy (+6% mom) in Oct 19. Cumulative 9M19 at -4% yoy.

  • volume up +1% yoy (+9% mom) in Oct19. Cumulative 9M19 at -2% yoy.

  • volume up +3% yoy (+12% mom) in Oct19. Cumulative 9M19 at -1% yoy - higher volume growth most likely due to its less aggressive pricing strategy over group.

  • New players volume up +4% yoy (+12% mom) in Oct19. Cumulative 9M19 at +5% yoy - strong Oct19 volume by new players came from Siam, Bima and Conch.



Sumber : IPS

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