Company Update  /  Coal  /   UNTR IJ  /   Click here for full PDF version 
 Author(s):  Reggie Parengkuan    ;Ryan Winipta 

• Pama coal production recovered (+11% mom) after Lebaran, but SR continued to decline (-2% mom) after pre-stripping in 4Q23/1Q24.
• TTA coal sales volume declined by 25% mom amid logistical challenge on lower rainfall, while gold sales slightly improved mom (+6%).
• We reiterate our Buy rating at unchanged SOTP -based TP of Rp27,500.

Komatsu recovered post Lebaran sales dip in Apr24
Komatsu sales volume recovered to 357 units in May24 (+30% mom/-35% yoy), after a low-base in Apr-24 due to Lebaran holidays with recovery seen across sectors on monthly basis. Overall, 5M24 Komatsu sales dropped to 1,757 units (-34% yoy), roughly in-line with ours and management guidance at c.44% of FY24F forecast.
Pama coal production rebounded but SR continued to decline
Similarly, Pama production volume improved to 13Mt in May24 (+11% mom). However, OB volume grew at a slower rate to 107mbcm (+9% mom) on the back of lower SR (8.3x, -2% mom) following pre-stripping in 4Q23/1Q24. Overall, coal production/OB volume reached 56Mt/491mbcm in 5M24 (+22/+15% yoy), in-line with our estimates (at 42%/42% respectively).
TTA volume declined on logistical issue, but remained in-line
TTA coal sales volume saw a steep decline to 1Mt (-25% mom) due to logistical issue from lower rainfall, with thermal coal sales volume declining to 0.7Mt in May24 (-33% mom) while coking coal sales volume remained relatively stable at 0.3Mt (+2% mom). Overall, 5M24 thermal/coking coal sales volume reached 4.9/1.3Mt (+16%/+33% yoy), which came broadly in-line with our estimates (at 39%/45% respectively).
Expect SJR mine to start contributing in 2H24F
Gold sales volume slightly improved to 18k oz (+6% mom), solely driven by higher production from Martabe. Cumulatively, 5M24 sales volume of 84k oz (-10% yoy) remained below our FY24F estimate (at 36% IPS), but we expect volume to catch up when SJR mine commences production in 2H24F. Note that SJR has yet to kick-start production as of Jun24.
Reiterate Buy at unchanged SOTP -based TP of Rp27,500/share
We maintain our FY24-26F estimates for now as May24 operational volumes remained broadly in-line with our estimates. We reiterate our Buy rating at unchanged SOTP -based TP of Rp27,500. UNTR is currently trading at an attractive valuation of 4.4x FY24F P/E, compared to ADRO /ITMG at 4.2x/4.8x FY24F P/E. UNTR typically trades at 7/17% premium to ADRO /ITMG. We think the weakness in share price has been primarily driven by investors' concern regarding dividend, considering UNTR 's aggressive M&A plan going forward.


Sumber : IPS