Sector Update / Banks / Click here for full PDF version
Author: Jovent Muliadi ;Anthony
- Aggregate big 4 bank-only 10M24 profit grew at +8% yoy to Rp153tr and came in-line on consol basis at 83% of our/cons' FY24F.
- 's 10M24 CoCstood at 3.2% (+38bp mom), flat vs. 9M, but this was largely expected post reporting month. We expect FY CoC at 3-3.1%
- Liquidity seems to be a main concern which was reflected in 's sell-off post reporting. Other than , all banks LDR already at >90%.
10M24 bank-only results were relatively in-line
Aggregate big 4 banks posted overall bank-only earnings growth of +8% yoy/-8% mom to Rp153tr in 10M24, which was in-line on consol basis at 83% of our/consensus FY24F estimates. Overall NIM contracted marginally by -12bp yoy to 5.5% but improved by +15bp mom driven by higher asset yield (+23bp mom) and higher LDR (+88bp mom). Overall loan grew at +13% yoy/+1% mom with continued to post the strongest growth (+23% yoy/+2% mom). Meanwhile, deposit grew by +7% yoy/flat mom.
10M24 results: beat in earnings, partly on provision reversal
bank-only profit of Rp46.2tr in 10M24 (+15% yoy/+34% mom) came slightly ahead of our/cons' estimates at 85%. PPOP rose by +13% yoy/+9% mom. It also recorded a provision reversal of Rp340bn in Oct24 and resulted in CoC of 0.2%, below its FY guidance of 0.3-0.4%. NIM rose by +26bp yoy to 5.9% in 10M24 from increase in asset yield (+23bp yoy) and LDR (+781bp yoy). Loan grew at +14% yoy (+1% mom) while deposit at +3% yoy (flat mom).
10M24 results: elevated CoC and weak loan growth are expected
bank-only profit of Rp45.7tr in 10M24 (+5% yoy/-26% mom) came relatively in-line on a consolidated basis at 81% of consensus' FY24F. PPOP growth remained the strongest among big banks, at +15% yoy/-11% mom. However, this was offset by elevated CoC of 3.2% in 10M24 vs. 2.6% in 10M23 which was largely expected post reporting month (i.e. Mar/Jun/Sep). We estimate FY CoC will be within the 3-3.1% range. Loan growth of +6% yoy/+1% mom was slower than deposits growth of +7% yoy/flat mom as the focus for this year is to improve its micro's asset quality.
10M24 results: strongest loan and deposit growth but liquidity is becoming a concern
bank-only profit of Rp43.1tr in 10M24 (+6% yoy/-26% mom) was in-line on consol basis at 82% of consensus FY24F. PPOP was up by +7% yoy/-11% mom as NII also rose by +5% yoy/+4% mom while opex only increased by +1% yoy/+17% mom. CoC was flat yoy at 0.7% in 10M24. NIM contracted by -19bp yoy to 4.7% amid rising CoF (+54bp yoy). Loan and deposit was the strongest at +23% yoy and +13% yoy but this also resulted in elevated LDR of 95% (+711bp yoy), raising a concern on future margin and FY25F growth.
10M24 results: still weak PPOP but improving on mom basis
bank-only profit of Rp18.1tr in 10M24 (+4% yoy/-5% mom) was ahead of ours but in-line with consensus forecast at 86/82%. This was mainly driven by lower provision (-21% yoy/+41% mom), PPOP remained weak at -3% yoy/+3% mom which came below at 79%. 10M24 NIM dropped by -29bp yoy to 4.0% in 10M24 (but improving 37bp mom) despite higher LDR of 96% (+526bp yoy). Loan grew at +9% yoy (+1% mom) but deposit grew at only +3% yoy (flat mom).
Sumber : IPS