Sector Update / Banks / Click here for full PDF version
Author: Jovent Muliadi ;Anthony
- Aggregate big 4 banks 7M24 profit grew at +6% yoy, in-line with our estimate of 4%. and performance remained ahead.
- opex (+45% mom) and provision (+174% mom) spiked in Jul24 but this was a conservative approach by management (link).
- Other than , LDR rose across the board by 700-800bp yoy due to pick-up in loan except for amidst drop in deposit.
7M24 bank-only results: and were the strongest
Aggregate big 4 banks posted overall bank-only earnings growth of +6% yoy/-20% mom to Rp104.6tr in 7M24, relatively in-line with our/consensus estimates of 4/5%. PPOP growth was decent at +10% yoy but declined -7% mom, as only posted strong mom growth by +12% ( -20% mom, -9% mom, flat mom).Provision rose by +25% yoy/+169% mom mainly from . Overall NIM improved on mom basis to 5.8% (+18bp mom) on the back of higher yield and LDR. Overall loan grew by +15% yoy/+1% mom while deposits grew at +9% yoy/-1% mom.
7M24 results: consistently performing well
bank-only profit of Rp31.4tr in 7M24 (+12% yoy/+1% mom) came in-line. PPOP rose by +11% yoy/+12% mom driven by NII (+9% yoy/+4% mom) and non-II (+4% yoy/+46% mom) while opex was benign (+1% yoy/+13% mom). Provision dropped by -27% yoy/-115% mom and resulted in CoC of 0.3% (in-line with FY24F target). NIM improved by +21bp yoy to 5.9% in 7M24 due to increase in asset yield (+22bp yoy) and LDR (+711bp yoy). Loan grew by +14% yoy (+1% mom) while deposit at +4% yoy (flat mom).
7M24 results: temporary pick-up in opex and CoC
bank-only profit of Rp31.4tr in 7M24 (+2% yoy/-50% mom) came as a negative surprise.This was attributed to spike in opex (+45% mom)from higher personnel expenses for additional micro loan officers, one-off leave allowance (c.Rp250-300bn), and one-off provision for non-cash loan (NCL) amounting Rp1.6tr which will be reversed in the coming months. At the same time, provision for loan rose by +174% momwhich translate to CoC of 3.9% in Jul24 (vs. 1.4% in Jun24) - 7M24 CoC to 3.4% (+6bp vs. 1H24) but this was due to management conservative stance in increasing provision for its restructured portfolio(link). Loan grew by +9% yoy (flat mom) slower than deposits of +13% (flat mom).
7M24 results: beat in earnings amid strong loan growth
bank-only profit of Rp29.2tr in 7M24 (+7% yoy/-9% mom) came above consensus' target of +2% yoy. PPOP up by +6% yoy/-9% mom while NII also rose by +4% yoy/+3% mom. CoC stood at 0.8% in 7M24 (flat mom). NIM contracted by -35bp yoy to 4.8% but improved +14bp on mom basis amid higher asset yield (+31bp mom) and LDR (+276bp mom). Loan grew by +23% yoy (+2% mom) while deposit up by +13% yoy (-1% mom) with grew at +16% yoy (+-1% mom), the highest among big banks.
7M24 results: steep increase in LDR due to drop in deposit
bank-only profit of Rp12.5tr in 7M24 (+3% yoy/-3% mom) was below cons' estimate of +5% yoy. This was due to weak PPOP (-6% yoy/flat mom) but was offset by lower provision (-27% yoy/+9% mom). 7M24 CoC stood at 1.0% (-49bp yoy/+8bp mom). NIM improved by +33bp mom to 4.5% in Jul24 but this came at the expense of elevated LDR of 97% (+346bp mom). Loan grew at +11% yoy (flat mom) but deposit grew at only +2% yoy (-3% mom).
Sumber : IPS