Sector Update / Banks / Click here for full PDF version
Author(s) : Jovent Muliadi ;Anthony
- BNI recorded Rp1.2tr of foreign flow MTD and brought overall YTD inflow to Rp2.3tr, second only to BRI at Rp6.1tr. This resulted in 10% mom gain.
- We believe the rally was due to: 1) improvement on its loan growth, 2) valuation catch-up against
- We look at this from two sides; on a positive note, foreign positioning is still way off its peak in FY17 (only back to FY19) but on the other hand, we think that upside from fundamental is limited (loan growth/ROE).
Surge in MTD foreign flow to BNI
BNI outperformed the rest of the banks in Sep by staggering amount (+11-16% against
P/B-ROE trade-off remains attractive but PPOP /equity trajectory is also imperative to justify the re-rating
YTD flow of BNI recorded at Rp2.3tr, second only to BRI at Rp6.1tr whereas
Liquidity is our concern for BNI's loan to continue to pick-up
At the same time, BNI Aug23 LDR is the highest at 91% vs.
Fund positioning suggest that there is still room for more inflow
We think the surge in BNI lately was due to the fact that link to our note) also warranted a re-rating and hence, remains as our top pick. Separately, foreign positioning in BNI is still way lower than its peak in FY17 (at 4.5%) vs. current 2.5%; whereas local positioning also suggest that there is still room to catch-up (OW JCI by 1.3% and absolute weight of 3.8% even lower than Dec22 4.6% vs.
Sumber : IPS