Exports grew less by +32% yoy, while imports grew more at +40% yoy in Jul22 (+41% and +22% yoy respectively in Jun22), Trade surplus beat consensus at US$4.2bn (consensus at +US$3.9bn, trade surplus at +US$5.1bn in Jun22).The higher import was sourced mainly from oil&gas at +148% yoy (+60% yoy in Jun22).
In terms of goods, exports of Coal and Iron&Steel increased to 133.6% and 25% yoy in Jul22 (+112% and +12.3% yoy in Jun22), while exports of CPO declined to +42% yoy (+79% yoy in Jun22). We see the trade surplus to be a good starting point for 3Q22 GDP figure at c.+5.5% (+5.4% in 2Q22).
Despite of encouraging trade surplus, we believe domestic demand will be the engine of growth in 2H22 at c.+6.1% yoy (+3.9% yoy in 1H22).For now, we keep our macro expectation unchanged and reiterate our GDP growth forecast at c. 5.1% in FY22 (+3.7% yoy in FY21). (Research Indo Premier)
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